The timing lands squarely in the crosshairs of warnings that have already rattled markets, some from unlikely places. Citrini Research, source of the top finance Substack, published a viral “thought exercise” in February framing the AI moment as a “global intelligence crisis”—a reckoning for every business model built on “friction,” or the human effort embedded in economic life that AI is now beginning to route around. Citrini’s hypothetical 2028 scenario envisions national unemployment printing at 10.2% and the S&P 500 suffering a 38% peak-to-trough crash. The essay was viewed over 85 million times on X, and the Dow fell more than 800 points the Monday after it circulated.
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