伊朗政权的稳固不依赖单一领袖的个人魅力,而是植根于一个与政权深度绑定、利益共生的核心利益集团。这个核心利益集团以革命卫队为绝对核心,紧密联结教士阶层、准国有经济集团,以及海量受益于现有体制补贴和福利体系的社会群体,形成了一张覆盖经济、军事、宗教、社会的利益大网。最高领袖的权力基础在于对这一“赢者联盟”的资源分配能力,而非广泛的群众动员。
"It's become so existential that neither party would agree to stop their operations unless it was part of a broader deal that sorted out the most important questions of what comes next, because neither side would trust the other to actually stop."
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